[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NEAR 23N43W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N43W TO 13N46W AND 10N54W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 31N16W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 31N16W TO 29N20W AND 28N26W. THE FRONT BECOMES
WARM FROM 28N26W TO 27N32W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
21N40W AND TO 16N44W. EXPECT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO
THE EAST OF 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 32N AND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 32N30W 17N40W 12N50W 8N59W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 720 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SAME 32N30W 8N59W LINE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN GUINEA NEAR
9N13W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 4N13W AND IT CONTINUES TO 3N18W
4N24W 3N30W 4N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO 1S44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
22W AND 26W. DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W AND 42W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 2N TO 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG 100W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A...WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 24N90W 27N83W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN GEORGIA 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...TO 26N89W AND 20N93W..IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N90W TO 24N92W
TO 20N98W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DISORGANIZED NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6NN75W IN COLOMBIA TO 4N80W TO
4N84W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FOR BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA...AND ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING HAITI. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THIS AREA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N82W TO 23N89W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W
28N70W 24N80W. CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 28N66W 23N78W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.29 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...AT 13/0000 UTC.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N24W 18N26W 10N28W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N54W
24N61W...TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N65W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF FRONT TO LINE FROM
31N45W TO 22N50W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN
NE SWELL. N OF TROUGH TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W AND WITHIN 90
NM W OF TROUGH FROM 19N TO 21N N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 19N E OF LINE FROM 31N47W TO 19N63W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA
OF IMPORTANCE CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 24N80W.
N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 59W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. N
OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 75W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSIST OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 19N
BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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