[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. GALE
FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N38W LOCATED SOUTH OF
AN EASTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND IS RESULTING IN N
TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
BEYOND 25N35W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N14W TO 02N23W TO 03N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 09W-27W...AND FROM
05N-12N BETWEEN 33W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RELATIVELY SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 67W THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 23N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 94W WHERE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF AND IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NE MEXICO...EASTERN TEXAS...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NW GULF WATERS. THIS CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
PRECEDES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ENERGY CENTERED
NEAR 26N104W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY
MID-DAY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG TRADES OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT DUE TO UPPER TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED BY A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS REGION...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT REMAINS TO BE STRONG
TRADES DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT GENERALLY BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY STRETCHING EASTWARD GRADUALLY BY
LATE MONDAY DUE TO ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SE
CONUS...SLIDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING BENEATH AN
OTHERWISE FAIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE OVERALL
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO
THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 66W-74W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDGING BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. ONE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE OTHER
RIDGE STEMS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N39W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N50W TO
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF 25N44W THAT
SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N38W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 20N41W THEN WEST TO 19N47W. A
WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 25N35W TO 29N25W AND CONNECTS UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SW TO THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS TO 29N25W. WITH SEVERAL FRONTS AND PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF
THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 22W-45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net