[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FEET
ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS
REGION A FEW MORE DAYS...BUT GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST A FEW MORE MORE HOURS TODAY.

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AROUND A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N40W WITHIN AN AREA FROM 25N TO 29N
EAST OF 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
6N10W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 3N37W TO 1N51W.
RANDOMLY ORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG...IS SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 14W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N74W THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR
23N92W...WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AT 29N89W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 83W-87W. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 92W.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED TODAY...AFTER SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
19N76W DOMINATES THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
AIR IS PRESENT S OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-80W. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA
OF MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED NEAR 18N85W...THE BASIN LACKS AREAS
OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF 76W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N-7N IN COLOMBIA W OF 75W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON. THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
79W WILL EXPERIENCE FRESH TRADE WINDS WHILE THE REMAINING AREA S
OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W WINDS WILL HAVE MODERATE WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TODAY BUT DISSIPATE N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND FRONT WILL
REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED...AND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MON. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN PHASE WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
31N74W THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE REST
OF THE REGION N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N52W 10N54W 6N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N44W...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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