[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO AFTER THEY DEVELOP.

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 14 FEET...ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FROM 25N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 42W. THIS IS FORECAST TO
HAPPEN AROUND A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR 21N39W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W 5N18W...TO 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W
3N30W AND 1N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N13W 4N18W 7N26W 5N33W 7N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NEAR 32N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR
29N83W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND
97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...TO 23N82W AND
22N88W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
MODERATE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...THROUGH 32N55W 29N64W
26N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT...
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...PALACIOS...AND
IN ROCKPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
MARATHON TO KEY WEST. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE
LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR
SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
19N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
HAITI.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 76W...AND FROM
15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N/7N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 4N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND POSSIBLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 2N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE AREA THAT IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 79W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
REMAINDER AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N76W...IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING AND FOG ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
REST OF THE REPORTING STATIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD COVERING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR
SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND THEN THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WESTWARD MORE AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN
THE BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 18N46W ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN CAUGHT UP
IN A LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 20N46W TO
11N50W AND 9N54W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N19W 25N35W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N35W TO 22N49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N18W 26N30W 21N44W 23N50W 24N53W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD
TO THE EAST OF THE 18N46W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE 32N42W 20N48W CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N52W 10N54W 6N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
7N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N19W 25N35W COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...THROUGH 32N55W 29N64W
26N72W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N35W TO 23N44W TO
22N50W. WITHIN 75 NM N OF FRONT E OF 43W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF 54W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN
54W AND 65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE
SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 51W AND 73W FROM 10N TO A LINE FROM 24N73W TO 20N51W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. S OF 11N
E OF 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO
29N81W. N OF 28N W OF 73W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 TO
25 KT W OF FRONT N OF 30N. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 12 FT N
OF 29N BETWEEN FRONT AND 73W. N OF 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W S TO
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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