[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW IS NEAR 24N42W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE
OF 1008 MB. N TO NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
44W AND 47W AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14/0600 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 31W-42W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N16W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 05N31W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-07N
BETWEEN 17W-30W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-
01N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SW TO A BASE OVER SE TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W SW TO 22N92W
TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. EAST OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES
DIFFLUENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 23N WHILE
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN E OF THE FRONT. BY TUE NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE BASIN LEAVING SOME REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF 70W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS S OF 13N E OF 70W. IN TERMS OF
WIND...TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN WHILE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 80W. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN BY TUE
NIGHT...HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION
SINCE TUE AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS CROSSING THE
EASTERN ISLAND WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD
WITH THE TRADEWINDS...THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO HAITI.
BESIDES AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
22N W OF 74W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A BASE NEAR 20N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 30N52W SW TO 26N62W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT A LOW REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE
AS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N42W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 26N38W FROM WHERE A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 25N31W. FROM THE TRIPLE POINT...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 19N38W TO 13N41W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
FOR WIND AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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