[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 0230 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY 25-35 KT IN THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N11W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N18W TO 2N30W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 41W...AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
90-120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KT...AND TO 20 KT AT ELEVATED
PLATFORMS. THE RETURN FLOW WAS ADVECTING COPIUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS INDICATED IN REGIONAL WSR-
88D RADAR DATA. AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WERE NOTED ALONG
THE GULF COAST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTED BROAD SW MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF
WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATED A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 100 KT SWEEPING
NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
CRESTING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG 80W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N95W BY
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN FRESH
NW WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG AND WITHIN
90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE...EXTENDING SWD TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA...SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES
DEPICTED 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...S OF JAMAICA...PUERTO
RICO... AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE VICINITY OF A MONSOON TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE/SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND
WAS NOTABLE S OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FAIRLY
STABLE REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ONLY ISOLATED WARM TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA IN AN OTHERWISE FAIR STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A THE
PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE AREA. THE 0000 UTC
SAN JUAN RAOB INDICATED VERY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 725 MB WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 1.48 IN. EXPECT THESE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 27N45W
TO 28N55W. THE FRONT WAS USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE E OF
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N
AND W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT NOTED ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED MAINLY ZONAL W
TO NW FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 22N AND W OF 60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE REGION S OF 22N. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
15N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT
TROUGH IS PRODUCING A VAST AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W. THE
CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB

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