[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 0456 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY 25-35 KT IN THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N13W TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N21W TO 3N35W TO THE
EQUATOR AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROF AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 36W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WAS NOTED FROM 2N-5N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 42W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KT...AND TO 20 KT AT ELEVATED
PLATFORMS. THE FLOW WAS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE RETURN
FLOW WAS ADVECTING COPIUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS
INDICATED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR DATA. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. AREAS OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG WERE NOTED ALONG THE GULF COAST OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED BROAD SW MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. GOES
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE
SPEEDS OF 100 KT SWEEPING NE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CRESTING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG 80W.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 24N95W BY TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN FRESH NW WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG AND WITHIN
90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF YUCATAN AND BELIZE...EXTENDING SWD TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA...SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES
DEPICTED 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...S OF JAMAICA...PUERTO
RICO... AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IN THE VICINITY OF A MONSOON TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE/SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND
WAS NOTABLE S OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FAIRLY
STABLE REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ONLY ISOLATED WARM TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA IN AN OTHERWISE FAIR STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A THE
PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE AREA. THE 0000 UTC
SAN JUAN RAOB INDICATED VERY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 725 MB WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 1.48 IN. EXPECT THESE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 27N40W
TO 27N46W. THE FRONT WAS USHERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE E OF
A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 39N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN
45 NM OF 29N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED
MAINLY ZONAL W TO NW FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 22N AND
W OF 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE REGION S OF 22N. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 17N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW AND AN
ATTENDANT TROUGH IS PRODUCING A VAST AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 25W-
45W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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