[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 25-35 KT IN THE
AREA WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N11W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N19W TO 3N31W TO
1N37W TO 2N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1S47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 1W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE VICINITY OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA PRODUCING LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. PRESENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS. A COLD FRONT
IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT THE TEXAS COLD FRONT
TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST AT 11/0600 UTC... AND EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA
AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N86W TO 15N86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF
THE GALE AREA...15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER HONDURAS...N NICARAGUA...S OF JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...
AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND
SHOWERS. DEEP LAYERED DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE REGION
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT WARM TOPPED SHOWERS TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
30N50W TO 30N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
28N70W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. THE
TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
30N40W TO 29N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N48W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 30W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE W ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE WITH RESIDUAL
SHOWERS PERSISTING. ALSO EXPECT THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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