[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
6N15W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 3N24W AND
3N31W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W/41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 33W AND
43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 51W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISOBARIC FIELD COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 22N84W 18N85W 16N84W...IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W
AND LAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST
OF 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
10/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN
GUADELOUPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 69W AND 81W AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
SANTIAGO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINIGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS
ARE IN BARAHONA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 30W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W
TO 29N60W AND 28N70W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT FROM
28N70W TO 29N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
29N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...31N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 14N49W. A TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N37W 17N43W...
TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N51W 9N53W AND 6N57W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO 700 NM TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 6N54W 15N46W 20N37W 20N30W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
20N30W BEYOND 17N17W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N30W TO 28N40W 28N55W 26N71W...
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH...COVERS MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...AND MAURITANIA.
THE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N8W 25N12W 20N17W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N14W. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N10W AND 29N8W. A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N8W TO 25N7W AND 19N9W IN
MAURITANIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN
SAHARA TO MOROCCO...AND IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 28N70W
THEN WARM FRONT TO 28N80W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FEET
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
22N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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