[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL 10-M WINDS INDICATED GALE
FORCE WINDS CONTINUED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 30-35 KT IN THE AREA
WITH SEAS OF 9-14 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 25-30 KT.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
8N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N19W TO 3N30W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND IN AN AREA FROM THE
EQUATOR-3N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N84W TO 24N87W. WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE
NW COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND OVER TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE FRONT WAS ADVECTING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHICH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF WSW FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE WAS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER
FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD BY AN 80-100
KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PROGRESO MEXICO ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SE TO BELIZE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED E OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER ACTIVITY WAS OVER BELIZE AND
HONDURAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REPORTING 15-20....LOCALLY 25 KT
TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
GUATEMALA...W HONDURAS... PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA
RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N W OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND
SHOWERS. DEEP LAYERED DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE REGION
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT WARM TOPPED SHOWERS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N57W WHERE IT BECOMES A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 29N65W TO NEAR PALM BEACH
FLORIDA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 N OF THE
FRONT W OF 65W WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM TO THE N OF THE FRONT.
WSR-88D DATA AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM IN PALM BEACH COUNTY FLORIDA OVER THE PAST 6-9
HOURS. THIS STORM HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY BEACH AND
HYPOLUXO. SEVERE URBAN FLOODING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE CLOSURE
OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BOYNTON BEACH. THE 1028 MB HIGH EARLIER OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W HAS WEAKENED TO A RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER....WHILE FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST
OF AFRICA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 14N49W. A 100 KT JETSTREAM E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 10W-35W. THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AS WELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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