[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N10W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N16W TO 3N30W TO
5N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
AT 34N81W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 19N95W. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SE
GULF TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH
A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF TO
INCLUDE THE TUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W TO HONDURAS AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
N OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST N OF THE FRONT.
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 17N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 10N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND S COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A BREAK IN TRADEWIND
SHOWERS. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS ALOFT. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 30N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 26N72W TO 22N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N45W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 34N16W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
28N20W TO 23N30W TO 26N40W MOVING E. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE LOCATED AT 29N21W
AND 16N45W. A 90 KT JETSTREAM E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 10W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E
ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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