[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
4N16W AND 3N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N24W TO 5N35W AND
5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 1E AND 3W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W
AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
25N22W 21N25W...THROUGH 19N31W...TO A 16N41W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...12N53W AND 10N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N24W...26N34W 27N40W
AND 31N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W 24N20W 20N33W 13N50W 10N60W.
19N54W 20N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF 22N17W 16N35W 10N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO 25N97W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IN THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 33N46W-TO-GULF
OF HONDURAS RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N67W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...TO 20N82W...TO THE
COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N70W TO 22N78W...TO 13N82W IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WERE 0.51 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.32 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.29 IN TEGUCIGALPA.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N92W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 21N92W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KEIR...KATP...KMYT...AND KIPN.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KVAF AND KVBS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVER THE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
COASTAL PLAINS FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. A SECOND AREA
OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER LA ROMANA AND PUERTO PLATA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA AT
THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT FIRST NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THAT
WIND FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER PART OF THAT EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WIND FLOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IT CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY TOWARD AND ACROSS COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.71 IN
TRINIDAD...0.51 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.32 IN BERMUDA...
0.29 IN TEGUCIGALPA...AND 0.15 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N78W...TO
8N83W...BEYOND 7N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 79W AND 89W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12
FEET TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N
TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N46W TO
26N60W...TO A 25N63W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF
18N/19N TO THE WEST OF 46W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N41W...THROUGH 32N46W...TO 27N56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 27N67W THEN
STATIONARY TO 22N78W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS TO 76W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET FROM
15N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 57W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LINE FROM 31N46W TO 20N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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