[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THIS REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A PERIOD OF 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 03N32W TO
02N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N47W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN ATLC SW TO A
BASE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 10N42W TO
05N53W AND A LINE FROM 11N16W TO 03N23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF ALOFT
AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO GREAT
PORTIONS OF IT TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
STRAITS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 37N75W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN
BASIN WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT AND EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF
N OF 23N WHERE ASCAT DATA INDICATE WINDS UP TO 25
KT...OBSERVATIONS OVER THE REMAINDER WESTERN GULF SHOW WINDS OF
15 KT. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE INTO THE NW ATLC. WITHIN
THIS PERIOD...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW GULF ENHANCING
RAINSHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
19N85W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N WEST OF
82W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 81W...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN TERMS OF WIND...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE OUT OF THE
GALE ZONE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 75W AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN AND THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF LATER TODAY...HOWEVER REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOIST AIR OVER
COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION.
DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N61W TO 26N71W TO NORTH-
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
17N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N43W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED
BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N16W TO 22N23W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 20N31W TO 20N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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