[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27.5N80W.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE N OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT.

AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER FLORIDA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA AT 27.5N80W TO
NAPLES FLORIDA AT 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W TO
THE BAY OF CAMECHE NEAR 18N93W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE
ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON
07/0000 UTC W OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LATER GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON 07/0600 UTC NW OF LINE
FROM 22N84.5W TO 18.5N88W.

SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N10W TO 3N26W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N26W TO E OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 4N36W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM
4N42W SW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N37W TO
1N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7N BETWEEN 20W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 25-30 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 26N. THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF
FRONT HAS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
A 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N TEXAS AT 33N98W MOVING SE
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENDT OVER THE GULF. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF S OF 27N TO
INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. THE TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF A COLD FRONT. SEE
ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA... YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE... HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. EXPECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE
THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF
FRONT. SEE ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N46W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 30N26W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BETWEEN 55W-75W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM
32N32W TO 16N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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