[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 06/1200 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM TAMPA BAY TO BAY OF CAMECHE NEAR 19N95W. NW
TO N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE S OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THE SW N ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS OF GALE
FORCE ARE FORECAST N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. FINALLY AS THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT W TO NW WINDS OF GALE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
4N9W TO 4N21W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N22W TO E OF
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 4N35W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM
3N40W SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N35W TO 1N39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. THE TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1200 UTC
EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE E PACIFIC BY THE WIND FLOW ALOFT ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR
25N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY WEST OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE TONIGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE FORCE WINDS SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE
RIDGE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 13N79W. THE TROUGHING AND REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT THAT IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART AT THE SURFACE. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N87W
ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH RAINSHOWERS ON THE CAYMAN TRENCH...JAMAICA. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO IN AROUND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...STRONG
TRADEWINDS PERSIST GENERALLY E OF 80W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT GENERATING
NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ISLAND. OTHERWISE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANQUIL AS THE AIR VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 55W-75W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. OTHERWISE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE
PORTION OF THE AREA  EXTENDS FROM 32N32W TO 16N53W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-35W . AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net