[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 07/0300 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N73W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W AND THEN INLAND MEXICO. IN
THE SW NORTH ATLC NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO
80W WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 07/1200 UTC. N-NW WINDS OF
GALE FORCE ARE ALSO WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 94W AS WELL AS S OF 26N
W OF 94W. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD...GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 07/0600
NW OF A LINE FROM 22N84W TO 19N87W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
6N11W TO 04N20W TO 02N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO
E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N37W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH
FROM 03N42W SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S47W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N38W TO
01N40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC SW TO A BASE OVER VENEZUELA IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SE OF
A LINE FROM 20N18W TO 07N37W NORTH OF 02S. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 08N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE BASIN BUT A PORTION OF IT NOW
CROSSING WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS EXTENDING
A RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO GENERATE WINDS OF GALE FORCE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SW WIND FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH AXIS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W SW TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS RAINSHOWERS WEST OF 83W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHER THAN VERY SPARSE LOW-TOPPED CLOUDS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE BASIN AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 12N...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUSTAINING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND
MOVING WEST. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N73W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N78W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WEST OF THE FRONT WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N W OF THE
BOUNDARY TO 80W WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 07/1200 UTC.
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N48W. OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING ALOFT IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N23W TO 27N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 22W-28W AND FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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