[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 05/2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N92W
SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED BY 06/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF WEST
OF THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION MID-DAY MONDAY...NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO
COMMENCE BY 06/1200 UTC NORTH OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT.
FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...N TO
NE WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST NORTH OF 19N WEST OF 84W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ALL
REGIONS BY LATE TUESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N25W TO 06N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED FROM 03N34W TO 07N30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 13W-
20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N92W.
THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED AT 05/2100 UTC FROM 30N92W SW TO THE NE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N98W. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NORTH
OF THE BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO 27N88W.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR THIS
EVENING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION ALONG 25N TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W. THE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
MARCHES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY LATE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER E-SE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 80W THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGHING AND REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HOWEVER KEEPING
CONDITIONS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AT THE SURFACE. THE MOST NOTABLE
AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A VERY WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
83W-88W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADES PERSIST...GENERALLY E OF
78W...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W NW TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FINALLY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATE MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE FORECAST
TO COMMENCE EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 71W REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RIDGE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N75W TO A BASE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N80W. THIS WEAKER TROUGHING ALOFT
PRECEDES THE MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 70W THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
37N57W. STRONG S-SE WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE ARE FORECAST TO VEER GRADUALLY AS THE 1015 MB LOW MOVES NE
OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS ALSO OCCURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE COLD FRONT POISED TO EMERGE INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY MID-DAY MONDAY. THEREAFTER THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN WEAKENING GRADUALLY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS W-SW TO
28N50W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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