[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH TUE
MORNING FROM S OF 25N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON N OF 19N W OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING
N OF 29N W OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST MON EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N21W 3N30W WHERE A 1012 MB LOW
DISRUPTS THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 3N31W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 3N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N41W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 10W-23W AND FROM 7N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF ALONG 95W. A SHARP BUT
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AT 05/1500 UTC EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA S OF NAPLES TO NEAR KEY WEST WITH
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA BAY. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAIN STATES WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI
BEFORE TURNING W ACROSS S TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NW GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
FEATURES IN THE W ATLC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA. FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO TONIGHT PUSHING SE OF THE
GULF BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF TUE AND
SPREAD E TO 90W BY WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARP BUT NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W
ATLC IS DIGGING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO E
HONDURAS. A REMNANT 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 05/1500 UTC NEAR
18N87W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO THE W YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W AND TO THE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N83W TO OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BUILDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE MON. STRONG TRADES
WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC MON EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP BUT NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND E GULF OF
MEXICO DIGGING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA SUPPORTING
A WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT 05/1500 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR VERO
BEACH. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N56W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N80W TO TO 32N76W. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
32N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N47W TO 28N62W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH ABOUT 400 NM NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC MON EVENING THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO 32N70W TO
CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST TO THE SE BY TUE. THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 65W WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE
N AS A WARM FRONT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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