[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SE GULF S OF 25N WITHIN
75 NM E OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N83W TO YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE W GULF MON MORNING AND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUE MORNING.
THIS SECOND GALE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N
WITHIN 75 NM E OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N86W. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
MON AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC FROM 08N13W TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR
07N20W AND CONTINUES TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 02N30W...THEN TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05S-07N BETWEEN 24W-33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N-
10N EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 27N85W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NORTH OF
HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOWING AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG EASTERN MEXICO ADVECTS MOIST AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO
THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 26N WEST OF 90W. LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
KEEPS THE REMAINDER BASIN FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS OFFSHORE THE WESTERN FLORIDA
COASTLINE AS WELL AS INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE NW BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N WEST OF 80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N
OF 20N WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MON AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NW BASIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT LEAVING RESIDUAL
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW BASIN MON NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STABLE DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N37W TO 27N46W
TO 27N52W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
27N61W TO 28N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC N OF 22N WEST OF 73W BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH WAS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
NEAR 28N29W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
SHEAR LINE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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