[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 06/0300 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W SW TO THE
NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N97W. N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE WEST OF
THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION MID-DAY MONDAY...NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO
COMMENCE BY 06/1800 UTC NORTH OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT.
FINALLY...AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ON
07/0000 UTC...N WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST NORTH OF 21N
WEST OF 85W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
06N32W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N36W SW TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N32W TO 03N35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
BETWEEN A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT
0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W SW TO THE
NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM
WEST OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
GULF EXTENDING FROM 21N97W TO 19N96W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N83W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 76W. THE TROUGHING
AND REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT THAT IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N85W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED ASSOCIATED TO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
OTHERWISE...STRONG TRADEWINDS PERSIST GENERALLY E OF 78W.
FINALLY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY GENERATING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE
FORCE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ISLAND. OTHERWISE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 35N54W
COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL BASIN. MOSTLY
DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THIS REGION SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NE BASIN SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 30N30W TO 27N39W WHERE IT TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 26N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 30W-38W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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