[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W SW
TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE
GULF TO 23N85W ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 19N92W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 80W IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC...AND S OF 21N W OF 92W IN THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO...AND APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N25W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 07W-
20N...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W SW TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-
FREE...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. THE DIMINISHING TREND OF
NORTHEASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE ARKANSAS SWIFTLY MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLC COAST. AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS...LIGHT S-SE
FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NW GULF AS ANOTHER AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
U.S. PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO THE NW GULF WATERS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN EAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 74W. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-
79W. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-88W. TWO OTHER AREAS OF
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
S OF 16N. THE LARGEST OVERALL SYNOPTIC CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ENTRY OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG 20N/21N OVERNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY BEGIN DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO
DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 40N72W TO
BASE NEAR 33N77W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N72W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT
THE FRONT BRINGS IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREAS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SE CONUS
COAST. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N BETWEEN 28W-42W AND BRIDGES THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE 1029 MB HIGH AND A DISSIPATING 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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