[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NOW SPANS THE W
ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. 10-25 NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. RESIDUAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 82W-92W. FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...70-90 KT SW 250 MB WINDS TRAVERSE THE GULF WITH
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER N FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE
THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
MOVE TO THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N80W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W S OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND
COSTA RICA...MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AT 24N76W TO W CUBA AT 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT WITH OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF LOW
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY E AND EXTEND FROM
30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N75W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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