[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 26N82W 21N90W 17N93W. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
22N TO THE WEST OF 93W. EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF
A LINE FROM 27N83W TO 22N94W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE EAST OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N77W 28N81W.
NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ARE
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 27N77W TO 27N80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDERS OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...TO 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
4N22W TO 4N30W AND 2N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 8W AND
20W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N33W TO
19N41W...TO A 14N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
16N44W...9N51W AND 7N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD...FROM 4N TO 23N BETWEEN 20W AND
50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS ONLY THAT PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W...
AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER SUPPORT
FOR THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS INLAND. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA...TO 21N90W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 24N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
21N98W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KEMK...KGUL...AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTIAGO...IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE
AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE
WILL COVER THE LAST 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF
80W. THIS WIND FLOW IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF
70W...ORIGINATING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY... SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF
80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.28 IN
CURACAO. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 02/1200 UTC WERE...0.48 IN TRINIDAD...0.28 IN SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.20 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
28N28W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 31N36W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N36W TO 29N50W AND 30N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
28N30W 28N40W 27N50W AND 30N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N9W AT THE COAST OF MOROCCO TO A
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N28W...TO 27N42W AND
25N62W 24N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...COLD FRONT FROM 31N35W TO 29N40W TO 28N50W.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W AND FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 10N35W
TO 13N61W AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 31N55W TO 19N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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