[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N83W 18N94W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 6 HOURS TO THE
NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF A 31N76W 28N80W COLD
FRONT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12N 5N14W 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N25W
4N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 40W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N40W 16N44W...11N50W AND
9N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
NORTHWARD...FROM 8N TO 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...COVERS ONLY THAT PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 92W...
AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER SUPPORT
FOR THE CURRENT COLD FRONT IS INLAND. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N84W...23N90W...CURVING TO
20N94W AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 26N80W 30N75W BEYOND 32N73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
23N99W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...TO 19N96W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...AND KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF CORPUS
CHRISTI AND HOUSTON...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD
IN MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND SOUTHWARD EVENTUALLY TO
NAPLES.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA...WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. THIS WIND
FLOW IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W...ORIGINATING IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 4N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO
18N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO
18N BETWEEN 65W AND 83W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO
28N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N32W TO 30N39W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N39W TO 29N50W AND 29N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
28N40W 27N53W AND 30N66W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N9W AT THE COAST OF MOROCCO TO A
1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N27W...TO 27N38W AND
26N63W 24N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N84W.

1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N25W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N38W 29N46W 27N56W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N36W TO 28N53W
TO 31N65W. N OF 27N E OF 58W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL. FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W NE
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 27N
E OF 64W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED N
AND E SWELL. S OF 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W INCLUDING ATLC
APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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