[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE
BY 03/0000 UTC FROM 20N-25N W OF 95W WITH THIS AREA GRADUALLY
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH GALE FORCE N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N14W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 03N26W TO 04N36W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEAR 37N103W S-SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N112W. THE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING THE GULF
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A NARROW SWATH OF
CONCENTRATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N100W OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF TO OVER A MAJORITY OF THE SE CONUS. THIS
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA LUZ MEXICO
NEAR 24N98W TO SARASOTA FLORIDA NEAR 27N83W. SOUTH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO IMPACT THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FOCUSED ON A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N93W. A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTEND SE AND NW OF THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF
92W. OTHERWISE...THE LOW IS DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
23N90W WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT GENERATED BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 84W-92W. THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THURSDAY...
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...NOTE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE...ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY EARLY
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE USUAL
STRONGER AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-80W OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF CONCENTRATED ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN MOST NOTABLY S
OF 13N BETWEEN 57W-65W...THE MONA PASSAGE REGION...AND FROM 14N-
17N BETWEEN 66W-76W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED NORTH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N73W W OF 52W
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING FROM THE SE CONUS AND INTO A DEEP LAYERED LOW FOCUSED
ON A 993 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N43W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N55W TO 29N62W AND
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE TO LACK
ANY SIGNIFICANT OVERALL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW AND ABSENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N47W
AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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