[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE
ON THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT EARLY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC N OF 30N WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
04N16W TO 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 04N33W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N EAST OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 32W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 01/2100 UTC...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW
GULF NEAR 22N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N90W
TO 26N84W TO THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS AMPLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM
26N82W TO 24N88W TO 23N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW
GULF NEAR 28N96W TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N92W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG CENTRAL U.S.A SW TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N WEST OF
92W. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ANCHORED NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL
AS JAMAICA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...TRADE
WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WHILE LIGHTER WINDS
SPREAD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 30N52W SW TO 26N61W TO 26N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N75W TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS NEAR 65 NM OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE N OF 26N WEST
OF 51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N27W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THURSDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEW COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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