[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 24N81W TO 23N92W...TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N93W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS
AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N12W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W TO 3N27W TO 4N38W
5N41W...AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 56W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO
THE EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N58W...TO 30N63W TO 26N70W AND 26N73W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM 26N73W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND
AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO 24N90W... CURVING TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 21N93W...TO 20N ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 31N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
25N70W 24N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
22N98W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KIPN ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2
MILES OR LESS WITH FOG.

FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS OR SO...FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND TO SARASOTA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF COASTAL FLORIDA...TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO...
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH THE SAME RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
APPROACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 23N34W
21N46W...TO A 16N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COASTAL COLOMBIA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W 7N80W...BEYOND 6N84W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
10 TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 81W AND 82W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
21N46W...TO A 16N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W...
JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N9W AT THE COAST OF MOROCCO...
THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N23W...TO
29N41W 27N56W...TO 24N73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...
INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 79W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 63W. THE 42-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS
OF GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180
NM TO THE EAST OF A 31N78W 29N81W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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