[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

HE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N14W
THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN
31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
W FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ALONG 27N...PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. MODERATE E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N-
CENTRAL GULF EARLY WED,,,REACH FROM TAMPA TO NE MEXICO WED NIGHT
THEN WEAKENS AS IT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR SKIES AND FEW SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS STRONG DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD EASTERN ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N29W IS RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE SW N ATLC
OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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