[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N07W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 26W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
EVENING WITH THE ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N90W. WEAK
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
AS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY N OF 27N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...WEAK E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT PREVAIL
CURRENTLY WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOLLOWING DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL STABILITY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN FAIR
SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS
PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED GENERALLY S OF 15N
BETWEEN 71W-79W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N62W SW TO 27N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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