[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N22W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 33W
AND 41W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO
29N100W ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 29N100W BEYOND WEST TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 29N94W 25N98W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
29N81W 27N92W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST
OF 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N89W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT 500 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 1
MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KCRH. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1000 FEET OR LOWER AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES
AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KGUL...AND KDLP. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT KEIR...KSPR...
KATP...AND KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN...AND SOME VISIBILITIES NEAR 3 MILES
COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND
3 MILE VISIBILITIES COVER TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 3
MILES TO 6 MILES IN OTHER AREAS...ALSO REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PLAINS. A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED IN NEW IBERIA...SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN COVERING THE AREA FROM APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE TO
PERRY...TO BROOKSVILLE...TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM
PUNTA GORDA TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD
CEILING COVERS THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N86W TO 26N97W. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA...TO
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA...BEYOND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA ON TOP OF
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA...LA ROMANA...
SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE AND A NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...A RIDGE IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...GIVING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN
AREA OF VARIABLE AND CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERALL 48 HOUR PERIOD. HISPANIOLA EVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN
A COL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH
A TROUGH...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
EAST OF 23W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N7W TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N30W 27N50W 26N64W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO
THE EAST OF 48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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