[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-40W AND FROM 3N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SMALL
BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF ALONG
84W FROM 27W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 29N85W 27N89W TO 27N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N87W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG 24N THIS
EVENING THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING
FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THU.
REMNANTS OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SW GULF
WATERS ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED. THE TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
PENINSULA OF HAITI. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N75W TO 27N79W TO OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N71W TO 26N78W
INCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W
AFRICA SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N10W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC HAS BECOME CUT-OFF AND IS CENTERED NEAR 25N45W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N34W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC
THIS MORNING REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N70W WHERE IT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY TO PORT CANAVERAL THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NE ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD MOVING
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WED. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL STALL FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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