[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 1N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-40W AND
FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SMALL
BUT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF ALONG 88W
FROM 27W-30W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH DEPICTING A WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA AND
CONTINUES ALONG 29N86W TO 28N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INTO
THE N GULF TONIGHT AND MON STALLING ALONG 27N THEN WILL LIFT
BACK N ON MON NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NW GULF TUE NIGHT BEFORE REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WED NIGHT THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
THU. REMNANTS OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SW GULF
ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA ON WED AND THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR ALOFT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED.

HISPANIOLA...
THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF GONAVE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF
80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N10W
ALONG 26N25W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N35W THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 25N46W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N56W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N13W TO 27N21W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO
27N35W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO W ATLC LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE MON BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N57W TO NEAR
WEST PALM BEACH TUE BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS STRONGER THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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