[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N17W
THEN CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN
19W-26W AND EQUATORIAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SW-W FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING STEERED FROM E PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO SUPPORT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF 10-15 KT BASIN WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 28N ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE
AND SE LOUISIANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN WATERS
EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE SE...DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF BY MON NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT AND REACH
FROM TAMPA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN...AND INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. E-NE WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR SKIES AND FEW SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS STRONG DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N38W DOMINATES THE REGION. A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE BROAD RIDGE
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ALL ACROSS
THE BASIN. SHALLOW ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE NW COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
31N14W TO 28N25W THEN DISSIPATING TO 28N40W. A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC EARLY MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUE OVER WATERS N OF 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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