[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-29W...AND S OF 05N
BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY RETREATING EASTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO
26N92W. S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 90W. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS MOVING NE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS ON SATURDAY FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE SW GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY ZONAL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE RESULT AS WELL ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND REGIME. DUE TO A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...E-NE WINDS REMAIN
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS TO GALE FORCE
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SW NORTH ATLC RIDGING
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN E-SE TRADES. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 26N65W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 60W-
66W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 31N73W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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