[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTH ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS GENERATING
GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 11 FT.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N16W
AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-14W AND
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE GULF PROVIDES NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE N
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW INTO THE GULF. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE BASIN WHICH ALONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. RETURN
FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUE
TO GENERATE ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS N OF 27N W OF 86W. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SE TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SW TO SE MEXICO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE
AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 66W-74W. IN
TERMS OF WIND...EASTERLY TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH NEAR TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATE. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED
BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
30N49W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N59W TO 27N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 61W-68W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 140 NM WEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE OVER
THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER ATLC
WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 38N36W. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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