[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 202358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W
AND 78W EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 2N20W
1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....FROM
IOWA TO MISSOURI...TO WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT STILL IS INLAND...ALONG THE LINE OF THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AREA OF TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND BEYOND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 22N94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...AND KBQX ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST...AND ELSEWHERE AT KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KEIR...
KSPR...AND KATP. ICAO STATION KVBS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA IS
REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...LOW IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF AND KDLP...

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE LOUISIANA
COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PERRY FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE
OR LESS ARE IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM PUNTA GORDA TO FORT
MYERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W.
EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 32N62W 25N65W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N74W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN CUBA...FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
ACROSS CUBA...TO 23N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND.
ISOLATED MODERATE IN WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 80W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 80W...FROM
11N TO 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST
OF 76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.38 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 9N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO
13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N62W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N65W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N74W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO
20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 80W.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...LA ROMANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO
PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
PUERTO RICO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA...AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W 25N65W...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N74W. ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N58W 27N61W. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N68W 27N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS
THE AREA.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N29W
21N25W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N22W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 22N94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 55W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 22N68W TO 17N61W TO 07N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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