[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEON NEAR 7N12W TO
6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W TO
2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT 21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120
NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 25N.  THE FRONT HAS LIMITED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS ONLY A BROAD TROUGH IS PRESENT NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT FROM 32N67W TO 24N74W.  THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH OF ABOUT 25N AND BECOME A SHEAR LINE WITHIN A
DAY OR SO...WHILE NORTH OF 25N THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  SCATTEROMETER...BUOYS...AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ONLY FRESH BREEZE WINDS AT MOST
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED...WHICH MAY AFFECT EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 32N35W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS PRIMARILY E OF 50W
BETWEEN 10 AND 25N.  AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT DAY...THESE TRADEWINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS
WELL.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND WINDS REMAIN AT GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH EASTERLIES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF VEERING TO SOUTHERLIES IN THE WESTERN GULF.
WHILE SOME LOW-CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...NO
RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING THE U.S. GULF COAST TODAY.  DUE TO LACK OF ANY
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THIS APPROACHING FRONT MAY
PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
ALONG THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES NOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING COASTAL AREAS.  THE CARIBBEAN
IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTWARD-
FACING TERRAIN OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
BELIZE SOUTHWARD.  THE TRADEWINDS ARE TYPICALLY AT MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE EXCEPTION...AS
IS USUAL...IS ENE WIND UP TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES NOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT OVER
AND NEAR HISPANIOLA.  THE CARIBBEAN IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE PROMOTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTWARD-FACING TERRAIN OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHERN HAITI.
THE TRADEWINDS ARE AT MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
MODERATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net