[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO
4N15W AND 2N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N21W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 24W...TO 1S30W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
21W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO
THE EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 105W ACROSS
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N64W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO 22N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 29N60W 27N63W 25N67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 25N67W...TO 70W THROUGH
HISPANIOLA...TO 12N84W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N63W...
ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N57W-TO-26N64W-TO-22N77W COLD
FRONT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEMK...KHQI...KEHC...
KCRH...KEIR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO
MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING
REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LOUISIANA TO PERRY
FLORIDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA...EVENTUALLY TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA...AND
THEN BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO JAMAICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA TO
70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 7N87W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED
MORE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO
13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. HISPANIOLA
IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 25N67W...TO 70W AS IT PASSES
THROUGH HISPANIOLA...TO 12N84W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...
COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER
SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM CUBA
TO JAMAICA...AND THEN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE
AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 30W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS PARTS OF MOROCCO...THE
WESTERN SAHARA...MAURITANIA...AND ALGERIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST
OF 30W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. PLEASE
CONSULT THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W-TO-22N77W COLD FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N36W...30N42W 28N48W AND 25N60W...TO 16N73W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 27N63.5W TO
21N77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 15
FEET IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 31N52W TO
23N68W TO 23N72W TO 31N73W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15
FEET FROM 8N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 46W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N52W TO 19N63W TO 9N59W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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