[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-41W TO
00N47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 7W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF
EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 24N83W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. A COLD FRONT
INLAND OVER TEXAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
COULD POSSIBLY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE COAST OF TEXAS
LATER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING MOISTURE TO THE
N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S
COAST BETWEEN 75W-78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 84W. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER
LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED GENERATING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-75W
SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N55W AND
EXTENDS 25N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N34W.
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE
AS THE COLD PORTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATING
BY EARLY WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH WED. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED AND SHIFT E
OF THE AREA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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