[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC FROM
31N72W TO 23N79W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29 N W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SECOND GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT MORNING AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF FRONT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTH TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 03N35W TO COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N44W.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST
OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N90W...FOLLOWING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF
YESTERDAY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FAR SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF...WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
APPEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG W TO
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
GULF LATE FRI THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS
STARTING TO STALL AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE. UPPER FORCING IS STILL SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS FROM GRAND CAYMAN THROUGH SE CUBA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW PERSISTS NW OF THE DYING FRONT. LIGHT N TO NW
WINDS CONTINUE N OF PANAMA ALONG A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
LIKELY N OF PANAMA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS
WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAKENING...THERE IS ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND OFF THE NORTH COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...BUT
RETURN WITH THE NORMAL DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING SUPPORT TO INCREASE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PERSISTENT AND ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG TO GALE FORCE W TO NW FLOW
FOLLOWS THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ACKLINS ISLAND IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT
STALLS AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W TO
27N45W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N58W.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH STRONG SE
WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH PRES N OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL
WATERS SOUTH OF 22N. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ERODED THE HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE ATLANTIC...THUS TRADE WIND FLOW E OF 30W IS NOW
MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW
IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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