[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC FROM
31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29 N W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SECOND GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT MORNING AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF FRONT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTH TO 07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 03N35W TO COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST
OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N90W...FOLLOWING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF
YESTERDAY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. RECENT REPORTS
FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATED FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS STARTING OFF
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION...AN OSCAT PASS FROM AROUND
0630 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
COAST OF THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS. THESE
WINDS ARE INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE
EXITING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR
SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST
OF THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS NOTED OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS APPEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH PRES WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER
THE NW GULF TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.
STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE FRI THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS
STARTING TO STALL AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
FRONT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE. UPPER FORCING IS STILL SUPPORTING
A FEW SHOWERS FROM GRAND CAYMAN THROUGH SE CUBA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW PERSISTS NW OF THE DYING FRONT. LIGHT N TO NW
WINDS CONTINUE N OF PANAMA ALONG A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
LIKELY N OF PANAMA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS
WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAKENING...THERE IS ENOUGH
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HAITI
AND WEST CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...BUT RETURN WITH THE
NORMAL DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN...ENHANCING CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PERSISTENT AND ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF A STALLING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG TO GALE
FORCE W TO NW FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE
OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 26N45W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N57W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH STRONG SE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
HIGH PRES N OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 22N. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS ERODED THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE ATLANTIC...THUS
TRADE WIND FLOW E OF 30W IS NOW MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS.
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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