[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29 N W OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 70W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SECOND GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF FRONT. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W 2N35W 1N47W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION BUT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA W OF 80W. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WITH CLEARING
SKIES ALONG THE N COAST N OF 28N AND THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE N AND E GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN DOMINATE THE GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA WHERE
IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N83W TO OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
17N86W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N79W THROUGH THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 18N. THE BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT WITH MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL W OF THE ISLAND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS. A SECOND FRONT WILL SWEEP E SAT THROUGH SUN
AND COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N77W TO OVER CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM E
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-28N AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N TO OVER
CUBA. THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AMPLIFIES OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N32W ALONG 25N63W TO 15N49W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W AND
EXTENDS TO 28N44W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N54W TO
29N60W WHICH CONNECTS TO A WARM FRONT THE EXITS THE REGION NEAR
32N63W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W AND BRIDGES THE
ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND A WEAKER 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N41W. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E AND EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA
EARLY FRI AND FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA FRI EVENING WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE N WATERS SAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND GALE WARNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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