[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N19W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W AND 34W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N EAST OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 23W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND A 1022
MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS PROVIDE NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
OF 10-20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN GULF. EXCEPT FOR
THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
GENERATING ADVECTION FOG...THE REMAINDER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT
THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG
25N86W TO 23N92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TONIGHT AND
START DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW GULF MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS
AN AXIS INTO THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR
THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 81W WHERE MODERATE MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED BY EASTERLY TRADES ALONG THE BELIZE AND HONDURAS
COASTLINES...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHERN PANAMA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WHICH ALONG THE
TRADES MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS TONIGHT. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE
OF 15-20 KT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 30
KT AND THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE 10 KT EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO 70W
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W
FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W...ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N41W WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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