[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W... TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 35W ALONG THE EQUATOR. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N
BETWEEN 28W AND 30W FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W AND
35W... AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 2N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N TO THE WEST OF
28W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN GENERAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH TEXAS AND REACHING THE FRINGES OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF WATERS OF TEXAS. THE GFS 250 MB FORECAST
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE TEXAS COAST AT 09/0000
UTC EASTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND THEN FLATTEN
OUT. THE TROUGH AT 500 MB IS COMPARATIVELY MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND THEN BROADER SPATIALLY IN COVERAGE
AND WITH TIME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
BERMUDA...TO 30N79W FOR THE LOW CENTER...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N94W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 18.5N92W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
IS 0.39 IN BERMUDA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN
THIS AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
JAMAICA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N52W 17N60W 8N68W IN
VENEZUELA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED FROM 14N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 79W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO AND IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 3N78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST...BEYOND 5N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 10.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...
SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND
CUBA RIDGE. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AROUND 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N52W...TO 17N60W
JUST OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 8N68W IN VENEZUELA TROUGH.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 30W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME
AREA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N10W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N25W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N39W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N47W...TO 28N63W...AND TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N75W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE BERMUDA-TO-30N79W LOW
CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 52W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 25N35W TO 22N57W TO
19N62W. A DEVELOPING 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27.5N80.5W. EXPECT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net