[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 08W-
12W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 19W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 32N91W SW
TO A BROAD BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N104W. THIS TROUGHING
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W W-SW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 81W-
90W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF MOBILE BAY NEAR 30N88W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
W-SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N96W THEN S-SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 22N98W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 75W FROM OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A RELATIVELY FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN 65W-80W.
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLIES PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N54W. WHILE THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS ALOFT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF 65W. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT LOCATED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE
TO N-NW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W NE TO 30N60W. THE TROUGHING TO THE WEST SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N72W SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE E-NE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...CENTRAL ATLC...AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N41W. THE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N TO THE CANARY
ISLAND AND AS FAR WEST AS TO 28N68W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
20N54W...WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER NE VENEZUELA NEAR
10N63W. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 07N-21N BETWEEN 45W-62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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