[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 5N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 1N40W AND S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES WITHIN A LONGER WAVE RIDGE.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH INDICATES THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE. THE SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT IS WANING
WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 24N92W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W.  A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA THROUGH 25N86W
TO 22N94W. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY
OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF
THE GULF WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 29N IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP ALONG AND S OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM THE N COAST OF YUCATAN TO 24N BETWEEN 86W-90W. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARLY IN PLACE WITH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT GRADUALLY VEERING AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW
FROM COLOMBIA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN EXTENSIVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N67W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE  CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A
WEAKENING FLAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS  WAS
IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W THROUGH 25N35W THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD AS SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 23N45W TO A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 21N58W AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N26W 30N35W TO 29N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N49W. STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE NW PORTION LATER THIS MORNING AND STALLS BEFORE LIFTING
SLOWLY N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI AND SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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