[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W 1N44W S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
19W-27W AND FROM 3N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N W OF 46W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS TO THE N
GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT
05/2100 UTC FROM SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W CONTINUING
ALONG 26N88W TO A FRONTAL WAVE BETWEEN 24N92W AND 22N95W THEN S
INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INDICATES
A WIND SHIFT AND EXTENDS ACROSS ST.PETERSBURG FLORIDA ALONG
25N87W 23N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE GULF W OF THE FRONT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. FRONT
WILL STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND THU NIGHT
THEN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN THE E GULF FRI NIGHT
AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA
ALONG 17N80W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND
USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W NE TO BEYOND
32N56W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA FRONT ST. PETERSBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH TO 29N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N27W ALONG 26N36W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
22N51W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N32W
31N39W TO 31N45W THEN DISSIPATING TO BEYOND 32N52W AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM S
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N29W TO 28N37W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
30N55W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION WED EVENING AND STALLS THU
BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI AND SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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