[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS WELL INLAND AFRICA TO COAST AT 6N10W
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W TO 1N130W TO
2N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE  AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-15W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SITUATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF PANAMA CITY SW TO 26N90W TO 23N94W TO
INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM JUST SW OF APALACHICOLA SW TO
28N87W TO 26N90W. CURRENT NWS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG...AND WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM SE OF THE TROUGH.
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS NUMEROUS STRIKES ACCOMPANYING THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CONVECTION NOT ALLOWING FOR IT TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF FROM NEAR 24N91W TO 19N94W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NW OF THE FRONT
TO 28N W OF 92W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT.
STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED S-SW
FLOW SE OF THE FRONT CONSISTS OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF
5-10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SW 10-15 KT IN THE NE PORTION. WITH THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMING RATHER ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HRS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM
SW FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. IT WILL
THEN LIFT N OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT AS WEAK LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND TRACKS NEWD INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLC. THE MODERATE TO STRONG
NLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH LIGHT TO MODERATE
FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS SW ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SEA. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN...THE SW PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS PRESENT ALOFT NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY
IS OBSERVED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. ONLY LOW CLOUD
STREAMERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW ARE PRESENT HERE. A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ADVECTING WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE
PRECEDES A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH FRI.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA HAS
MATERIALIZE INTO NE TO 20-25 KT WINDS THERE AND TO ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON THU
WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT...HOWEVER THE WINDS THEN
STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE ON FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADE
WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A
MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRI BRINGING WIDELY
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTION S OF
THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W
IN A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 17N
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1025 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 31N58W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N14W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN CREST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
UPPER RIDGE  NORTHEASTWARD FROM CUBA TO 27N72W TO NE OF
THE AREA AT 32N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 2N15W WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BROADENING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS. A STRONG SW JET STREAM BRANCH BETWEEN
THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS THE ADVECTING
AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N AND BETWEEN 48W-51W. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE 1025 MB HIGH WSW TO NEAR 27N77W. A LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ALTC FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 47W-53W IS TRACKING WESTWARD...AND IS ATTENDANT BY
MOSTLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. THIS FEATURE WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL APPROACH THE
LESSER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ARE AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL ON THU BEFORE
LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E OF
OF NE FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH S AND SE WHILE
WEAKENING AND FRACTURING THROUGH THU. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE


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