[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061452 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES WITHIN A LONGER WAVE RIDGE AXIS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FORMER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT
REMAINS FOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA THROUGH 25N88W TO 22N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH 21N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW
CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOW
STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N
OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
COMMON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF
THE GULF WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 29N IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
TODAY WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY VEERING AND
DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW
FROM COLOMBIA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN EXTENSIVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE  CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI. BEYOND
THAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N50W. A
FLAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE SE CONUS HAS DISSIPATED
WITHIN BROADER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THERE IS ONLY
SHALLOW SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE
FLORIDA E COAST JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT FROM 30N70W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W
THROUGH 25N35W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS SHEAR AXIS THROUGH
23N45W TO A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N58W AND INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W 29N25W TO
29N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM S OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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