[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W
AND 78W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN GALE FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE THEN FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND
EXTENDS TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO
TO 3N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
16W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR
26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W AND THEN ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE GULF. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W GULF WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...THEN MERGE WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EXIT OFF THE TX COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE WHICH
SUPPORTS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN BASIN. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT ARE NEAR
GALE FORCE S OF 15N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TRADE WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BASIN ON THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT THIS
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 27N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...INCLUDING THE N
BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W TO 22N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N36W COVERS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 10N WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR
28N65W AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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